Methodology for Assessing War Risks to Educational Institutions in Ukraine

Volume 9, Issue 3, June 2025     |     PP. 86-99      |     PDF (313 K)    |     Pub. Date: September 11, 2025
DOI: 10.54647/isss120415    14 Downloads     654 Views  

Author(s)

Vasilij Begun, Institute of Mathematical Machines and Systems Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 42 Academician Glushkov Avenue, Kyiv 03187, Ukraine
Valerii Kolesnykov, Faculty of Computer Science and Cybernetics, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 4d Academician Glushkov Avenue, Kyiv 03680, Ukraine
Vladyslav Mykhailiuk, Kyiv, Ukraine

Abstract
This article aims to develop a methodology for assessing risks to educational institutions related to Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine and to carry out a comparative analysis of this methodology with the one approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine.
Research methodology. The methodology we propose for assessing risks relies on probability theory and mathematical statistics. We utilized expert assessments approved by the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine to rank the risks.
Research results. We propose a methodology based on the probability distribution of enemy attacks across Ukraine's territory, constructed using the von Mises-Fisher distribution on a sphere in three-dimensional space. We use Bayes' estimates to evaluate the degree of risk. The general statistics of enemy attacks determine the distribution parameters. A computational experiment was conducted based on the statistics of attacks during the summer of 2025. The results obtained indicate that the level of absolutely unacceptable risk is exceeded even for educational institutions with the most favorable factors characterizing the damage to the territory.
Practical significance. The proposed methodology has a better justification than the approved methodology; therefore, its application and further approval may be advisable for the efficiency and correctness of the ranking of educational institutions by risk level. The experiments carried out and their refinements may also serve as an argument in favor of the fact that, under the given circumstances, ranking of institutions is not advisable at all, which can save time and resources of the authorities of Ukraine by redistributing budgets, giving priority to eliminating the root causes of high risks for institutions.

Keywords
risk analysis, safety, probability, Russo-Ukrainian war.

Cite this paper
Vasilij Begun, Valerii Kolesnykov, Vladyslav Mykhailiuk, Methodology for Assessing War Risks to Educational Institutions in Ukraine , SCIREA Journal of Information Science and Systems Science. Volume 9, Issue 3, June 2025 | PP. 86-99. 10.54647/isss120415

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